Global Climate Variability

We are interested in further developing our schemes for ENSO prediction based on new tropical and extratropical tracers that have been recently identified (Ballester et al., 2011; Rodo et al., in press). In particular, we are interested in learning about the role of the RossBell dipole in generating and modulating El Niño episodes, and the structure of the warming that occurs beforehand in the western tropical Pacific.
Regarding our studies on the climate of Southeast Asia, we will work to improve understanding of the potential role of Indian Ocean SSTA in the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). It has been found that the length and coverage of ISM were decreasing in the second half of the last century, and the ISMR-ENSO relationship was weakening during the last two decades of twentieth century. It seems that the Indian Ocean dipole mode plays an important role in modifying the ISMR-ENSO relationship. Therefore, in our study we first focus on the role of previous Indian Ocean SSTA on subsequent seasonal ISMR forecasts.
We also focus on the role of global ocean variability in the modulation of hydrological extremes. In particular, in terms of droughts, large-scale highly persistent droughts are being increasingly forced by large-scale climatic patterns driving global and regional climates. Looking in more detail at the extent to which meteorological droughts are relevant and dominant on the effect of land surface processes is a common objective of this RG and the Hydroclimate Models RG.

Research Themes