This year's ECMWF annual seminar took place in Reading, England from 3-7 September and provided a review of the principles behind seasonal predictions. IC3's scientist Virginie Guemas, working as postdoctoral researcher in the Climate Forecasting Unit, had the opportunity to attend this conference thanks to a Young Scientist Travel Award granted by the European Meteorological Society, in order to discuss and share knowledge with other international experts in the field of seasonal prediction.
Both recent scientific developments in probabilistic, coupled seasonal prediction were reviewed, and the value of seasonal prediction in weather-risk reduction were discussed in this seminar in five thematic sessions, spanning a very comprehensive set of aspects of the seasonal prediction. Seasonal forecasts are now increasingly used in a wide range of applications for improving the management of environemental risks, for example to prevent losses due to severe flood and drought conditions or to prepare for health-related emergencies.
During the conference, Virginie had the opportunity to discuss topics such as the climate sensitivity to volcanoes and results of experiments with other experts, and to plan collaboration for the new project PICA-ICE, which will start in January 2013.
For further information on the presentations held at this meeting, please refer to the website of ECMWF.