IC3 researcher Dr Rachel Lowe has been invited to participate in the upcoming workshop “Integrating Prediction and Forecasting Models for Decision-Making: Dengue Epidemic Prediction”, convened by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), which will be held 15 September 2014 in Washington DC.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate event in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a period of between 2 and 7 years. It is a coupled phenomenon of sea surface temperatures and zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. ENSO has a far-reaching effect and leads to extensive rainfall and floods or anomalous droughts in certain regions of the globe, thus affecting local agriculture.Therefore, its prediction is important and it is the subject of extensive research.
IC3 scientists and partners have developed an early warning system to predict the risk of dengue infections for the 553 microregions of Brazil during the football World Cup. The estimates, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, show that the chance of a dengue outbreak is likely to be generally low in all twelve host cities. However, there is enough of a possibility to warrant a high-alert warning in the three northeastern venues (Natal, Fortaleza, and Recife).
Two IC3 scientists - the PhD student Desislava Petrova and the post-doctoral scientist Joan Ballester - from the Climate Dynamics and Impacts Unit attended the Ocean Sciences Meeting (OSM 2014) at the Hawai‘i Convention Center on February 23rd – 28th.